Banner

Allen Research Group

Hail - Tornadoes - Climate Variability - Extremes

Publications

Google Scholar Profile

ResearcherID

Researchgate


Peer-Reviewed Publications

* Denotes graduate student advised by Dr. Allen

% Denotes postdoctoral researcher mentored by Dr. Allen

    In Review

  1. Taszarek, M., Pucik, T., Allen, J. T., Nixon, C., Dowdy, A., Bechis, H., Peters, J. M., Groenemeijer, P., Ribeiro, B., Battaglioli, F., and H. E. Brooks, 2026: What do large hail, tornado and severe thunderstorm wind environments have in common across continents? Conditionally Accepted, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

  2. Chapman, S., Allen, J. T., Syktus, J., Trancoso, R., and R. Eccles, 2026: Projected changes in severe convective environments in Australia in dynamically downscaled CORDEX-CMIP6 models. Conditionally Accepted, Environmental Research: Climate.

  3. Das%, S. and J. T. Allen, 2026: An Environmental Approach to Return Levels for Maximum Hail Size. Conditionally Accepted, Monthly Weather Review.

  4. Raupach, T., Bang, S., and J. T. Allen, 2026: Damaging surface hail in simulations of satellite-detected hailstorms in Australia’s tropics. In Revision, Atmospheric Science Letters

  5. Cuervo-Lopez*, C. M., Allen, J. T., Taszarek, M., Kluver, D. and A. Anderson-Frey, 2026: Global Evaluation of Profiles from ERA5 and MERRA2 using Clustering Analysis. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

  6. Anderson-Frey, A., Allen, J., Richardson, Y., and P. Markowski, 2026: Tornadoes: Genesis Mechanisms, Near-Storm Environments, and Climate. In revision, Invited Review, Nature.

  7. Nordstrand, T. E., Gao, Y., Ackley, S. F., O’Connell, S., Heymsfield, A., Brahney, J. and J. T. Allen, 2026: Microplastic Entrainment in Hail: Uncovering New Pathways for Atmospheric Pollution. Submitted to Nature Communications.


    8. 2026

  8. Zhang, S., Zhang, Q., Allen, J. T., Lin, X, 2026: Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world. In Press, Nature.

  9. Zeeb*, A., Allen, J. T. and M. Van Den Broeke, 2026: Understanding Left-Moving Supercells: Environmental Factors and Forecasting Challenges. In Press, Weather and Forecasting. doi:

  10. Wang, S., Trapp, R. J, Allen, J. T., Gopalakrishnan%, D., and E. Robinson, 2026: An ensemble of environment-informed, convection-permitting dynamical downscaling simulations for climate-change projections of hazardous convective weather. In Press, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. doi:10.1029/2025JD045354

    11. 2025

  11. Dos Santos*, L., Allen, J. T., Nascimento, E., 2025: Climatology and Trends of severe storm environments in subtropical South America. Weather and Climate Extremes, 100820. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2025.100820

  12. Homeyer, C., Bunkers, M., Allen, J. T., and A. Murphy, 2025: United States Supercell Storms and Their Severity: A 14-year Radar-Based Climatology. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 64, 959-970. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0185.1

  13. Hosek, M. J, Hoogewind, K. A., Clark, A. J., Justin*, A. J., and J. T. Allen, 2025: A 16-year Climatology of WPC-Analyzed Drylines with and without Severe Convection. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 64, 383–399. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0124.1

  14. Justin*, A. D., McGovern, A., and J. T. Allen, 2025: Efficient Identification of Frontal Boundaries over NOAA's Unified Surface Analysis Domain using AI. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 4, e240043. doi:10.1175/AIES-D-24-0043.1

    15. 2024

  15. Das%, S. and J. T. Allen, 2024: Bayesian Estimation of the Likelihood of Extreme Hail Sizes over the United States. NPJ Natural Hazards, 1, 47. doi:10.1038/s44304-024-00052-5

  16. Schmidt*, T. G., McGovern, A., Allen, J. T., Potvin, C. K., Chase, R., Wiley, C., McGovern-Fagg, W., Flora, M. L., Homeyer, C., Williams, J. K., 2024: Gridded Severe Hail Nowcasting Using 3D U-Nets, Lightning Observations and the Warn-on-Forecast System. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems,3, 240026. doi:10.1175/AIES-D-24-0026.1

  17. Gopalakrishnan%, D., Cuervo-Lopez*, C. M., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2024: A comprehensive evaluation of thermodynamic and kinematic biases in CMIP6 models over the United States. Journal of Climate, 38, 947–971. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0165.1

  18. Bunkers, M. J., Van Den Broeke, M., S. and Allen, J. T., 2024: An Update for Predicting Left-Moving Supercell Motion. Weather and Forecasting,39, 1777–1794.doi:10.1175/WAF-D-24-0028.1

  19. Nixon*, C., Allen, J. T., Wilson, M., Bunkers, M., 2024: Cell Mergers, Boundary Interactions and Convective Systems in Cases of Strong Tornadoes and Large Hail. In Press, Weather and Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-23-0117.1

    20. 2023

  20. Dos Santos*, L. O, Nascimento, E., and Allen, J. T., 2023: Discriminant Analysis for Severe Storm Environments in South-central Brazil. Monthly Weather Review, 151, 2659–2681, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-22-0347.1

  21. Nixon*, C., Allen, J. T., Taszarek, M. 2023: Hodographs and Skew-Ts of Hail-Producing Storms. Weather and Forecasting. 38, 2217–2236. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-23-0031.1

  22. Scarino, B., Itterly, K,,Bedka, K., Homeyer, C., Allen, J. T., Bang, S., and D. Cecil, 2023: Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network. In Press, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2, 220042. doi:10.1175/AIES-D-22-0042.1

  23. Justin+*, A. D., Willingham+, C., McGovern, A., and J. T. Allen, 2023: Toward Operational Real-time Identification of Frontal Boundaries Using Machine Learning. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2, e220052. doi: 10.1175/AIES-D-22-0052.1

    24. 2022

  24. Peters, J., Coffer, B., Parker, M., Nowotarski, C., Mulholland, J., Nixon*, C. and J. T. Allen, 2023: Disentangling the influences of storm-relative flow and horizontal streamwise vorticity on low-level mesocyclones in supercells. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 80, 129–149. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-22-0114.1

  25. Robertson, W., Kluver, D., Allen, J. T., E. Anderson, 2022: Meteotsunami Events and Hydrologic Response in an Isolated Wetland: Beaver Island in Lake Michigan, USA. JGR Oceans, 127, e2022JC018611. doi: 10.1029/2022JC018611

  26. Nixon*, C., J., Allen, J. T., 2022: Distinguishing between Hodographs of Severe Hail and Tornadoes. Weather and Forecasting, , 37, 1761–1782.doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0136.1

  27. Elmore, K., Allen, J. T., Gerard, A., 2022: Sub-Severe and Severe Hail. Weather and Forecasting., 37, 1357–1369. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0156.1

  28. Pilguj, N., Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Hoogewind, K., 2022: Are Trends in Convective Parameters over the United States and Europe Consistent between Reanalyses and Observations? Journal of Climate, 35, 3605-3626. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0135.1

    29. 2021

  29. Zhou, Z., Q. Zhang, J. T. Allen, X. Ni and C. Ng, 2021: How many types of severe hailstorm environments are there globally? Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095485. doi: 10.1029/2021GL095485

  30. Lepore, C., Abernathy, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., 2021. Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models. Earth’s Future, 9, e2021EF002277. doi: 10.1029/2021EF002277

  31. McGovern, A., and J. T. Allen, 2021: Training the next generation of physical data scientists, EOS, 102. doi: 10.1029/2021EO210536

  32. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Marchio, M. and H. E. Brooks, 2021: Global Climatology and Trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 1-11. doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x 10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x

  33. Allen, J. T., E. R. Allen, H. Richter and C. Lepore, 2021: Australian Tornadoes in 2013: Implications for Climatology and Forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 149, 1211-1232. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0248.1

  34. Murillo, E., Homeyer, C. and J. T. Allen, 2021: A 23-Year Severe Hail Climatology using GridRad MESH Observations. Monthly Weather Review, 149, 945-958. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0178.1

  35. Taszarek, M., Pilluj, N., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A. Brooks, H. E., and P. Szuster, 2021: Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA2 with sounding data over Europe and North America. Journal of Climate, 34, 3211-3237. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0484.1

  36. Nixon*, C. J., Allen, J. T., 2021: Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique. Weather and Forecasting, 36, 219-235. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0056.1

    37. 2020

  37. Raupach, T. H, Martius, O., Allen, J. T., Kunz, M., Lasher-Trapp, S., Mohr, S., Rasmussen, K. L., Tippett, M. K., Trapp, R. J., and Q. Zhang, 2020: The effects of climate change on hailstorms. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2, 213-226.

  38. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Groenemeijer, P., Edwards, R., Brooks, H. E., Chmielewski, V., Enno, S., 2020: Severe Convective Storms Across Europe and the United States. Part 1: Climatology of lightning, large hail, severe wind and tornadoes. Journal of Climate, 33, 10239-10261. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0345.1

  39. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Pucik, T., Hoogewind, K., and H. E. Brooks, 2020: Severe Convective Storms Across Europe and the United States. Part 2: Environments accompanying lightning, large hail, severe wind and tornadoes. Journal of Climate, 33, 10263-10286. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1

  40. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Brooks, H., Czernecki, B., N.Pilguj, 2020: Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1-51. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0004.1

  41. Allen, J. T., I. M. Giammanco, M. R. Kumjian, H. J. Punge, M. Kunz, Q. Zhang, and P. Groenemeijer, 2020: Ice from above: Toward a better understanding of hailstorms, EOS, 101, Published 11th September 2020. doi:10.1029/2020EO148818.

  42. Molina*, M., Allen, J. T., A. Prein, 2020: Moisture Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of a Winter Tornado Outbreak. Weather and Forecasting, 35, 1263-1288. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0240.1

  43. Lagerquist, R., Allen, J. T., and A. McGovern, 2020: Climatology and Variability of Warm and Cold Fronts over North America from 1979-2018. Journal of Climate, 33, 6531–6554, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0680.1

  44. Ni, X., A. Muehlbauer, Allen, J. T., Q. Zhang, and J. Fan, 2020: Climatology of Maximum Hail Size and Extreme Value Analysis in China. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 1431–1447. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0276.1

  45. Gensini, V., Barrett, B., Allen, J. T., Gold, D., and P. Sirvatka, 2020: The Extended-Range Tornado Acitivity Forecast (ERTAF) Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E700-709. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0188.1

  46. Molina*, M., and J. T. Allen, 2020: Regionally-Stratified Tornadoes: Moisture Source Physical Reasoning and Climate Trends. Weather and Climate Extremes, 28, 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.1002

  47. Allen, J. T., Q. Zhang, I. Giammanco, M. Kumjian, P. Groenemeijer, K. Ortega, M. Kunz, H. Punge 2020: Understanding Hail in the Earth System. Reviews of Geophysics, 57, doi: 10.1029/2019RG000665. (Invited Review Article).

    48. 2019

  48. Piper, D., M. Kunz, Allen, J. T., and S. Mohr, 2019: Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in Central and Western Europe and the relation to large-scale flow and teleconnection patterns. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 1– 23. doi: 10.1002/qj.3647

  49. Gensini, V. A., Gold, D., Allen, J. T., and B. Barrett, 2019: Extended U.S. tornado outbreak during late May 2019: A forecast of opportunity. Geophysical Research Letters,46, 10150-10158. doi: 10.1029/2019GL084470

  50. Molina, M. J.* and Allen, J. T., 2019: On the Moisture Origins of Tornadic Thunderstorms. Journal of Climate., 32, 4321-4346. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0784.1

  51. Robertson, W. M., Allen, J. T., Wolaver, B. D., and J. Sharp, 2019: Aridland spring response to mesoscale precipitation: implications for groundwater-dependent ecosystem sustainability. Journal of Hydrology, 570, 850-862. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.074

  52. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B., Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., and V. Kotroni, 2019: A climatology of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources. Journal of Climate, 32, 1813-1837, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1

  53. Goebbert, K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A., and M. Ramamurthy, 2018: Data driven scientific workflows: A summary of new technologies and datasets explored at the Unidata 2018 Workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, ES97-ES99, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0265.1(Conference Report).

    54. 2018

  54. Molina, M. J.*, Allen, J. T., V. Gensini, 2018: The Gulf of Mexico and ENSO Influence on Subseasonal and Seasonal CONUS Winter Tornado Variability. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 2439-2463. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0046.1

  55. Witt, A., D. Burgess, A. Seimon, J. T. Allen, J. C. Snyder, H. B. Bluestein, 2017: Rapid-scan Radar Observations of an Oklahoma Tornadic Hailstorm producing extremely large hail. Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1263–1282. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0003.1

  56. Lepore, C., M. K. Tippett, Allen, J. T., 2018: CFS seasonal short range forecasts for severe thunderstorms. Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1263-1282. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0054.1

  57. Edwards, R., J. T. Allen, and G. Carbin, 2017: Estimated convective winds: Reliability and Effects on Severe Storm Climatology. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 1825–1845. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0306.

  58. Allen, J. T., Molina, M. J.*, and, V. Gensini, 2018: Modulation of Annual Cycle of Tornadoes by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, doi: 10.1029/2018GL077482

  59. Allen, J. T., 2018: Climate Change and Severe Thunderstorms. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. 67pp. Ed.: Dr. Harold Brooks (Invited Review Paper) doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.

  60. Childs, S., Schumacher, R., and J. T. Allen, 2018: Cold-season Tornadoes: Climatological and Meteorological Insights. Weather and Forecasting, 33,671-691. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0120.1

  61. Keul, A.G., Brunner, B., Allen, J. T., Bowden, K.A.,,Taszarek, M., Price, C., Soleiman, G.,Sharma, S., Roy, P., Aini, M.S., Elistina, A.B., Ab Kadir, M.Z.A.and C. Gomes, 2018: The International Severe Weather Survey. Weather Climate and Society. 10, 501-520, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0064.1

  62. Gensini, V. A. & J.T. Allen, 2018: United States Hail Frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters,45, 1611–1620. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076822

  63. Bedka, K., J. T. Allen, H. Punge, M. Kunz, and D. Simanovic, 2018: A Long-Term Overshooting Convective Cloud Top Detection Database Over Australia Derived from MTSAT Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager Observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climate. 57,937–951, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0056.1

    64. 2017

  64. Allen, J. T., M. K. Tippett, Y. Kaheil, A.H. Sobel, C. Lepore, S. Nong, A. Muehlbauer, 2017: An Extreme Value Model for United States Hail Size. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 4501-4519. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0119.1

  65. Lepore, C., M K. Tippett, and Allen J. T., 2017: ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 44. doi: 10.1002/2017GL074781

  66. Allen, J. T., 2017: Atmospheric Hazards: Hail Potential Heating Up. Nature Climate Change, 7, 474-475, doi:10.1038/nclimate3327 (Invited Editorial)

    67. 2016

  67. Molina, M.*, Timmer, R. and J. T. Allen, 2016: The Gulf of Mexico’s contribution to United States Severe Thunderstorm Activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 12,295–12,304, doi:10.1002/2016GL071603.

  68. Allen, J., M. Tippett, A. Sobel, and C. Lepore, 2016: Understanding the drivers of variability in Severe Convection: Bringing together the scientific and insurance communities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, ES221–ES223. (Conference Report) doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0208.1

  69. Seimon, A., J. T. Allen, T. Seimon, S. Talbot, D. Hoadley and E. Edwards, 2016: Crowd-sourcing the El Reno 2013 Tornado: A new approach for collation and display of storm chaser imagery for scientific applications. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2069–2084. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00174.1

  70. Allen, J. T., and E. R. Allen, 2016: A Review of Severe Thunderstorms in Australia. Atmospheric Research. 178-179, 347-366. (Invited Review Paper) doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.011

  71. Lepore, C., Allen, J. T., M. K. Tippett, 2016: Understanding the relationship between Extreme Precipitation and Atmospheric Variables over the Contiguous United States. Journal of Climate, 29, 3181-3197, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0331.1

    72. 2015

  72. Allen, J. T., M. K. Tippett, 2015: The Characteristics of United States Hail Reports: 1955-2014. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 10(3), 1-31.

  73. Allen, J. T., M. Tippett and A. Sobel, 2015b: Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on US hail and tornado frequency. Nature Geoscience, 8, 278-283. doi: 10.1038/NGEO2385

  74. Allen, J. T., M. Tippett and A. Sobel, 2015a: An empirical model relating United States monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment. Journal of Advances in Modeling of Earth Systems, 7, 1-18. doi: 10.1002/2014MS000397

  75. Tippett, M., J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather. Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 60-73, doi: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6. (Invited Review Paper)

    76. 2014

  76. Allen, J., D. Karoly, and K. Walsh, 2014b: Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments, Part II: The influence of astrongly warming climate on convective environments. J. Climate, 27, 3848-3868. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00426.1

  77. Allen, J., D. Karoly, and K. Walsh, 2014a: Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments, Part I: A novel evaluation andclimatology of convective parameters from two climate models for the late 20th century. J. Climate, 27, 3827-3868. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00425.1

  78. Tippett, M., A. Sobel, S. Camargo, and J. Allen, 2014: An empirical relation between U.S. tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters. J. Climate, 27, 2983-2999. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00345.1

  79. Allen, J. and D. Karoly, 2014: A Climatology of Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments 1979-2011: Inter-annual Variabilityand the ENSO Influence. International Journal of Climatology. 34, 81–97. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3667

    80. Before 2014

  80. Allen, J. T., 2012: Supercell Storms: Melbourne’s White Christmas 2011. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. 25, 47-51.

  81. Allen, J. T., , D. Karoly, and G. Mills, 2011: A severe thunderstorm climatology for Australia and associated thunderstorm environments. Australian Meteorological Oceanographic Journal, 61, 143-158.

  82. Allen, J. T., Pezza, A. B. and Black, M. T., 2010: Explosive Cyclogenesis: A Global Climatology Comparing Multiple Reanalyses. J. Climate, 23, 6468–6484. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3437.1

GROUP

 Image 1

RESEARCH

 Image 2

PUBLICATIONS

 Image 3

TEACHING

 Image 4
All images and content on this website are used with permission or ©2019 John T. Allen