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Allen Research Group

Hail - Tornadoes - Climate Variability - Extremes

Publications

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Peer-Reviewed Publications

* Denotes graduate student advised by Dr. Allen

% Denotes postdoctoral researcher mentored by Dr. Allen

    In Review

  1. Das%, S. and J. T. Allen, 2024: Bayesian Estimation of the Likelihood of Extreme Hail Sizes over the United States. Conditionally Accepted, NPJ Natural Hazards.

  2. Schmidt*, T. G., McGovern, A., Allen, J. T., Potvin, C. K., Chase, R., Wiley, C., McGovern-Fagg, W., Flora, M. L., Homeyer, C., Williams, J. K., 2024: Gridded Severe Hail Nowcasting Using 3D U-Nets, Lightning Observations and the Warn-on-Forecast System. Conditionally Accepted, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems.

  3. Justin*, A. D., McGovern, A., and J. T. Allen, 2024: Efficient Identification of Frontal Boundaries over NOAA's Unified Surface Analysis Domain using AI. Conditionally Accepted, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems.

  4. Hosek, M. J, Hoogewind, K. A., Clark, A. J., Justin*, A. J., and J. T. Allen, 2024: A 16-year Climatology of WPC-Analyzed Drylines with and without Severe Convection. Submitted to Journal of Climate.


    5. 2024

  5. Gopalakrishnan%, D., Cuervo-Lopez*, C. M., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2024: A comprehensive evaluation of thermodynamic and kinematic biases in CMIP6 models over the United States. In Press, Journal of Climate.

  6. Bunkers, M. J., Van Den Broeke, M., S. and Allen, J. T., 2024: An Update for Predicting Left-Moving Supercell Motion. In Press, Weather and Forecasting.

  7. Nixon*, C., Allen, J. T., Wilson, M., Bunkers, M., 2024: Cell Mergers, Boundary Interactions and Convective Systems in Cases of Strong Tornadoes and Large Hail. In Press, Weather and Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-23-0117.1

    8. 2023

  8. Dos Santos*, L. O, Nascimento, E., and Allen, J. T., 2023: Discriminant Analysis for Severe Storm Environments in South-central Brazil. Monthly Weather Review, 151, 2659–2681, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-22-0347.1

  9. Nixon*, C., Allen, J. T., Taszarek, M. 2023: Hodographs and Skew-Ts of Hail-Producing Storms. Weather and Forecasting. 38, 2217–2236. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-23-0031.1

  10. Scarino, B., Itterly, K,,Bedka, K., Homeyer, C., Allen, J. T., Bang, S., and D. Cecil, 2023: Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network. In Press, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems. doi:

  11. Justin+*, A. D., Willingham+, C., McGovern, A., and J. T. Allen, 2023: Toward Operational Real-time Identification of Frontal Boundaries Using Machine Learning. In Press, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems. doi: 10.1175/AIES-D-22-0052.1

    12. 2022

  12. Peters, J., Coffer, B., Parker, M., Nowotarski, C., Mulholland, J., Nixon*, C. and J. T. Allen, 2023: Disentangling the influences of storm-relative flow and horizontal streamwise vorticity on low-level mesocyclones in supercells. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 80, 129–149. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-22-0114.1

  13. Robertson, W., Kluver, D., Allen, J. T., E. Anderson, 2022: Meteotsunami Events and Hydrologic Response in an Isolated Wetland: Beaver Island in Lake Michigan, USA. JGR Oceans, 127, e2022JC018611. doi: 10.1029/2022JC018611

  14. Nixon*, C., J., Allen, J. T., 2022: Distinguishing between Hodographs of Severe Hail and Tornadoes. In Press, Weather and Forecasting.doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0136.1

  15. Elmore, K., Allen, J. T., Gerard, A., 2022: Sub-Severe and Severe Hail. Weather and Forecasting., 37, 1357–1369. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0156.1

  16. Pilguj, N., Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Hoogewind, K., 2022: Are Trends in Convective Parameters over the United States and Europe Consistent between Reanalyses and Observations? Journal of Climate, 35, 3605-3626. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0135.1

    17. 2021

  17. Zhou, Z., Q. Zhang, J. T. Allen, X. Ni and C. Ng, 2021: How many types of severe hailstorm environments are there globally? Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095485. doi: 10.1029/2021GL095485

  18. Lepore, C., Abernathy, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., 2021. Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models. Earth’s Future, 9, e2021EF002277. doi: 10.1029/2021EF002277

  19. McGovern, A., and J. T. Allen, 2021: Training the next generation of physical data scientists, EOS, 102. doi: 10.1029/2021EO210536

  20. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Marchio, M. and H. E. Brooks, 2021: Global Climatology and Trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 1-11.

  21. Allen, J. T., E. R. Allen, H. Richter and C. Lepore, 2021: Australian Tornadoes in 2013: Implications for Climatology and Forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 149, 1211-1232. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0248.1

  22. Murillo, E., Homeyer, C. and J. T. Allen, 2021: A 23-Year Severe Hail Climatology using GridRad MESH Observations. Monthly Weather Review, 149, 945-958.

  23. Taszarek, M., Pilluj, N., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A. Brooks, H. E., and P. Szuster, 2021: Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA2 with sounding data over Europe and North America. Journal of Climate, 34, 3211-3237. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0484.1

  24. Nixon*, C. J., Allen, J. T., 2021: Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique. Weather and Forecasting, 36, 219-235. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0056.1

    25. 2020

  25. Raupach, T. H, Martius, O., Allen, J. T., Kunz, M., Lasher-Trapp, S., Mohr, S., Rasmussen, K. L., Tippett, M. K., Trapp, R. J., and Q. Zhang, 2020: The effects of climate change on hailstorms. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2, 213-226.

  26. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Groenemeijer, P., Edwards, R., Brooks, H. E., Chmielewski, V., Enno, S., 2020: Severe Convective Storms Across Europe and the United States. Part 1: Climatology of lightning, large hail, severe wind and tornadoes. Journal of Climate, 33, 10239-10261. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0345.1

  27. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Pucik, T., Hoogewind, K., and H. E. Brooks, 2020: Severe Convective Storms Across Europe and the United States. Part 2: Environments accompanying lightning, large hail, severe wind and tornadoes. Journal of Climate, 33, 10263-10286. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1

  28. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Brooks, H., Czernecki, B., N.Pilguj, 2020: Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1-51. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0004.1

  29. Allen, J. T., I. M. Giammanco, M. R. Kumjian, H. J. Punge, M. Kunz, Q. Zhang, and P. Groenemeijer, 2020: Ice from above: Toward a better understanding of hailstorms, EOS, 101, Published 11th September 2020. doi:10.1029/2020EO148818.

  30. Molina*, M., Allen, J. T., A. Prein, 2020: Moisture Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of a Winter Tornado Outbreak. Weather and Forecasting, 35, 1263-1288. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0240.1

  31. Lagerquist, R., Allen, J. T., and A. McGovern, 2020: Climatology and Variability of Warm and Cold Fronts over North America from 1979-2018. Journal of Climate, 33, 6531–6554, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0680.1

  32. Ni, X., A. Muehlbauer, Allen, J. T., Q. Zhang, and J. Fan, 2020: Climatology of Maximum Hail Size and Extreme Value Analysis in China. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 1431–1447. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0276.1

  33. Gensini, V., Barrett, B., Allen, J. T., Gold, D., and P. Sirvatka, 2020: The Extended-Range Tornado Acitivity Forecast (ERTAF) Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E700-709. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0188.1

  34. Molina*, M., and J. T. Allen, 2020: Regionally-Stratified Tornadoes: Moisture Source Physical Reasoning and Climate Trends. Weather and Climate Extremes, 28, 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.1002

  35. Allen, J. T., Q. Zhang, I. Giammanco, M. Kumjian, P. Groenemeijer, K. Ortega, M. Kunz, H. Punge 2020: Understanding Hail in the Earth System. Reviews of Geophysics, 57, doi: 10.1029/2019RG000665. (Invited Review Article).

    36. 2019

  36. Piper, D., M. Kunz, Allen, J. T., and S. Mohr, 2019: Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in Central and Western Europe and the relation to large-scale flow and teleconnection patterns. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 1– 23. doi: 10.1002/qj.3647

  37. Gensini, V. A., Gold, D., Allen, J. T., and B. Barrett, 2019: Extended U.S. tornado outbreak during late May 2019: A forecast of opportunity. Geophysical Research Letters,46, 10150-10158. doi: 10.1029/2019GL084470

  38. Molina, M. J.* and Allen, J. T., 2019: On the Moisture Origins of Tornadic Thunderstorms. Journal of Climate., 32, 4321-4346. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0784.1

  39. Robertson, W. M., Allen, J. T., Wolaver, B. D., and J. Sharp, 2019: Aridland spring response to mesoscale precipitation: implications for groundwater-dependent ecosystem sustainability. Journal of Hydrology, 570, 850-862. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.074

  40. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B., Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., and V. Kotroni, 2019: A climatology of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources. Journal of Climate, 32, 1813-1837, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1

  41. Goebbert, K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A., and M. Ramamurthy, 2018: Data driven scientific workflows: A summary of new technologies and datasets explored at the Unidata 2018 Workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, ES97-ES99, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0265.1(Conference Report).

    42. 2018

  42. Molina, M. J.*, Allen, J. T., V. Gensini, 2018: The Gulf of Mexico and ENSO Influence on Subseasonal and Seasonal CONUS Winter Tornado Variability. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 2439-2463. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0046.1

  43. Witt, A., D. Burgess, A. Seimon, J. T. Allen, J. C. Snyder, H. B. Bluestein, 2017: Rapid-scan Radar Observations of an Oklahoma Tornadic Hailstorm producing extremely large hail. Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1263–1282. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0003.1

  44. Lepore, C., M. K. Tippett, Allen, J. T., 2018: CFS seasonal short range forecasts for severe thunderstorms. Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1263-1282. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0054.1

  45. Edwards, R., J. T. Allen, and G. Carbin, 2017: Estimated convective winds: Reliability and Effects on Severe Storm Climatology. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 1825–1845. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0306.

  46. Allen, J. T., Molina, M. J.*, and, V. Gensini, 2018: Modulation of Annual Cycle of Tornadoes by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, doi: 10.1029/2018GL077482

  47. Allen, J. T., 2018: Climate Change and Severe Thunderstorms. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. 67pp. Ed.: Dr. Harold Brooks (Invited Review Paper) doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.

  48. Childs, S., Schumacher, R., and J. T. Allen, 2018: Cold-season Tornadoes: Climatological and Meteorological Insights. Weather and Forecasting, 33,671-691. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0120.1

  49. Keul, A.G., Brunner, B., Allen, J. T., Bowden, K.A.,,Taszarek, M., Price, C., Soleiman, G.,Sharma, S., Roy, P., Aini, M.S., Elistina, A.B., Ab Kadir, M.Z.A.and C. Gomes, 2018: The International Severe Weather Survey. Weather Climate and Society. 10, 501-520, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0064.1

  50. Gensini, V. A. & J.T. Allen, 2018: United States Hail Frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters,45, 1611–1620. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076822

  51. Bedka, K., J. T. Allen, H. Punge, M. Kunz, and D. Simanovic, 2018: A Long-Term Overshooting Convective Cloud Top Detection Database Over Australia Derived from MTSAT Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager Observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climate. 57,937–951, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0056.1

    52. 2017

  52. Allen, J. T., M. K. Tippett, Y. Kaheil, A.H. Sobel, C. Lepore, S. Nong, A. Muehlbauer, 2017: An Extreme Value Model for United States Hail Size. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 4501-4519. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0119.1

  53. Lepore, C., M K. Tippett, and Allen J. T., 2017: ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 44. doi: 10.1002/2017GL074781

  54. Allen, J. T., 2017: Atmospheric Hazards: Hail Potential Heating Up. Nature Climate Change, 7, 474-475, doi:10.1038/nclimate3327 (Invited Editorial)

    55. 2016

  55. Molina, M.*, Timmer, R. and J. T. Allen, 2016: The Gulf of Mexico’s contribution to United States Severe Thunderstorm Activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 12,295–12,304, doi:10.1002/2016GL071603.

  56. Allen, J., M. Tippett, A. Sobel, and C. Lepore, 2016: Understanding the drivers of variability in Severe Convection: Bringing together the scientific and insurance communities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, ES221–ES223. (Conference Report) doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0208.1

  57. Seimon, A., J. T. Allen, T. Seimon, S. Talbot, D. Hoadley and E. Edwards, 2016: Crowd-sourcing the El Reno 2013 Tornado: A new approach for collation and display of storm chaser imagery for scientific applications. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2069–2084. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00174.1

  58. Allen, J. T., and E. R. Allen, 2016: A Review of Severe Thunderstorms in Australia. Atmospheric Research. 178-179, 347-366. (Invited Review Paper) doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.011

  59. Lepore, C., Allen, J. T., M. K. Tippett, 2016: Understanding the relationship between Extreme Precipitation and Atmospheric Variables over the Contiguous United States. Journal of Climate, 29, 3181-3197, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0331.1

    60. 2015

  60. Allen, J. T., M. K. Tippett, 2015: The Characteristics of United States Hail Reports: 1955-2014. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 10(3), 1-31.

  61. Allen, J. T., M. Tippett and A. Sobel, 2015b: Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on US hail and tornado frequency. Nature Geoscience, 8, 278-283. doi: 10.1038/NGEO2385

  62. Allen, J. T., M. Tippett and A. Sobel, 2015a: An empirical model relating United States monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment. Journal of Advances in Modeling of Earth Systems, 7, 1-18. doi: 10.1002/2014MS000397

  63. Tippett, M., J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather. Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 60-73, doi: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6. (Invited Review Paper)

    64. 2014

  64. Allen, J., D. Karoly, and K. Walsh, 2014b: Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments, Part II: The influence of astrongly warming climate on convective environments. J. Climate, 27, 3848-3868. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00426.1

  65. Allen, J., D. Karoly, and K. Walsh, 2014a: Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments, Part I: A novel evaluation andclimatology of convective parameters from two climate models for the late 20th century. J. Climate, 27, 3827-3868. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00425.1

  66. Tippett, M., A. Sobel, S. Camargo, and J. Allen, 2014: An empirical relation between U.S. tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters. J. Climate, 27, 2983-2999. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00345.1

  67. Allen, J. and D. Karoly, 2014: A Climatology of Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments 1979-2011: Inter-annual Variabilityand the ENSO Influence. International Journal of Climatology. 34, 81–97. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3667

    68. Before 2014

  68. Allen, J. T., 2012: Supercell Storms: Melbourne’s White Christmas 2011. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. 25, 47-51.

  69. Allen, J. T., , D. Karoly, and G. Mills, 2011: A severe thunderstorm climatology for Australia and associated thunderstorm environments. Australian Meteorological Oceanographic Journal, 61, 143-158.

  70. Allen, J. T., Pezza, A. B. and Black, M. T., 2010: Explosive Cyclogenesis: A Global Climatology Comparing Multiple Reanalyses. J. Climate, 23, 6468–6484. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3437.1

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