Current Research Projects
Project: Geospatial predictive analysis of damaging hail and wind occurrences in the lower 48 states and Canada
Funding Agency: AON Inc
Funded Period: March 2022 - June 2024
Project Details
This project will focus on analysis of hazards in the present and future climate at the local scale. We will explore future projections of tornadoes, hail and damaging winds using CMIP6 projections over the United States. The project is focused on analysis and downscaling of CMIP6 model output to determine characteristics of severe convective storms and associated perils under human-induced climate change.
Group Members Involved
Dr. John T. Allen, Co-Principal Investigator
Dr. Robert J. Trapp, Principal Investigator (UIUC)
Dr. Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Carlos Mario Cuervo Lopez, Graduate Research Assistant
Project Deliverables & Outcomes
The initial analysis focus was on analyzing CMIP6 projections over the continental United States for the historical performance using both reanalysis and observational sources. We have identified that families of models exist that exhibit similar performance characteristics, suggesting that the ensemble should be treated with care. We have also explored future projections over North America for both moderate and strongly warmed cases, which suggest that the evolution is far from linear, particular as a function of synoptic regime. These results have been used to inform an ensemble approach to dynamic downscaling of severe weather events.
Publications
Gopalakrishnan, D., Cuervo-Lopez, C., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2023: A comprehensive evaluation of thermodynamic and kinematic indices in the CMIP6 models over the United States. Submitted to Journal of Climate.
Presentations
Gopalakrishnan, D., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2024: Future Changes in Severe Convective Storm Environments Over the United States: A Synoptic-scale Approach. Oral Presentation, 31st Conference on Climate Variability and Change, AMS Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD.
Gopalakrishnan, D., Cuervo-Lopez, C., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2023: Evaluation of the skill of CMIP6 models in capturing severe thunderstorm environments over the United States. Oral Presentation, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA.
Gopalakrishnan, D., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2023: CFuture changes in severe thunderstorm environments over the United States from CMIP6 models. Poster Presentation, AGU Fall Meeting 2023, San Francisco, CA.
Trapp, R. J., Wang, S., Allen, J. T., Gopalakrishnan, D., Robinson, E., 2023: Environment-informed, convection-permitting dynamical downscaling for climate-change projections of hazardous convective weather. Poster Presentation, AGU Fall Meeting 2023, San Francisco, CA.
Allen, J. T., Gopalakrishnan, D., Cuervo-Lopez, C., Trapp, R. J, and E. Robinson, 2023: Comparing CMIP6 Future Projections for Severe Convective Environments in a Warmed Climate over Australia, Europe, and North America. 11th European Conference of Severe Storms, Bucharest, Romania.
Trapp, R. J., Baldwin, M. E., Allen, J. T., Robinson, E., Bowen, S., Lasher-Trapp, S., Hoogewind, K. A., 2022: Convection-allowing dynamical downscaling for hazardous thunderstorm risk assessment under past and future climates. AGU Fall Meeting 2022, Chicago, IL.
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